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25 August 2014

Play nice:
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Cape Town: post-election analysis

23 August 2016

(Note: this article first appeared here) Introduction The City of Cape Town metro was once a fiercely contested battleground. Control of the metro changed hands a few times between 2000 and 2007, with various ANC-led and DA-led coalitions holding power at different points.

The new political landscape

7 August 2016

Below is the map of the status of South African municipalities after the 2016 municipal elections. The municipalities have been divided into those which have a clear majority and those which should need coalition governments. Those with a clear majority have been further divided into those which are relatively safe for the particular governing party […]

How does this ‘PR top-up’ system of voting work?

5 August 2016

At the time of writing this, the Nelson Mandela Bay metro results are hanging in the balance, but most of the ward vote has already been declared. Of the 60 wards in the metro, 34 have been called for the ANC, 21 for the DA and 5 still are undecided. Despite the ANC’s strong lead […]

How much will we (and the ANC) miss the NFP in the 2016 elections?

6 July 2016

Barring some kind of miracle, the  National Freedom Party (NFP) isn’t going to be contesting the upcoming municipal elections. It’s an ignoble end to the party’s 2016 campaign and it’s quite possibly the end of the party as a regional force in northern KwaZulu-Natal. All available information suggests that the party has been in decline […]

Northern Cape boundary changes and vulnerable municipalities

29 May 2016

There’s only one merger in the Northern Cape but there are many municipalities that hang in the balance in the largest province in South Africa: 17 of the 27 local municipalities have a council majority of two seats or fewer. The swing of a single seat in any of these municipalities could deliver a change […]