election analysis

I write about elections in South Africa. It’s the meeting place for my writing, my interest in local politics and my nerdy love of numbers.

Paul Berkowtz Map of Tlokwe Ward Results 2011

Map of Tlokwe ward results 2011 – click to enlarge

I started out covering elections for the Daily Maverick in 2011, during the general municipal elections in May. I picked up the election coverage for municipal by-elections in late-2011 and I haven’t stopped since.

Here’s a research note that I did in 2013 for Empowerdex. It tracks the trends in municipal by-elections from 2011 to early-2013.

Since 2013 I’ve been collaborating with Wayne Sussman (Find Wayne on Twitter here). We’ve co-authored pieces for the Daily Maverick and the Business Day. Our future writing will be hosted right here, although it may also appear elsewhere.

Below is my (and Wayne’s) most recent writing and research on elections in South Africa. We’ve covered the trends in the 2011 municipal elections, 2014 national/provincial elections, and all the by-elections since 2011


Mogalakwena in a post-Tlokwe world

By-election results

The big chill in Inkwanca

ANC, DA the big winners in round of by-elections
Business Day BDLive 15 August 2014

Lies and damn lies: Great election, where’s the after-party?
Daily Maverick 07 May 2014

Lies and damn lies: The Eastern Cape and the change that isn’t on the horizon
Daily Maverick 29 April 2014

Lies and damn lies: The Northern Cape (or looking for votes in all the hot and dry places)
Daily Maverick 24 April 2014

Lies and damn lies: What would it take for the ANC to lose Gauteng in 2014?
Daily Maverick 23 April 2014

Lies and damn lies: Which trend is your friend?
Daily Maverick 22 April 2014