Category Archives: Municipal analysis

Old and new borders: Nelson Mandela Bay metro 2016

18 March 2016

The Municipal Demarcation Board released the new boundary demarcations (district municipalities, local municipalities and municipal wards). These boundaries are available as shape files, so we can now map the old boundaries onto the new. Specifically, we can see how the changes in ward boundaries might affect 2016 seats won by the various parties.  Continue reading

What do I do with my vote?

31 January 2016

A few months ago I beat my breast and went on about how I couldn’t vote for the DA in the upcoming municipal elections because the party didn’t respect the rights of the rural poor. Last week a car sped through a broken traffic light outside my flat, smashing into another car and a group of pedestrians.

This week I am ready to toss aside any notion of principles when I cast my vote in a few months, at the school up the road that deputises as a voting station, the school that is now undergoing trauma counselling for the death of one of its pupils and the maiming of several others.

Continue reading

If a ward falls in the forest…

25 November 2015

So, about the DA winning Johannesburg and Tshwane. You know, it might just happen.  I don’t think it will, but it could. Vague predictions aside, the DA’s future in the big cities is an important part of the story of municipal government – but it’s not the whole story. In fact, statistically speaking, it’s not even most of the story.

I want to crunch the by-election numbers to look at the DA’s successes and failures over the last four years. Like the ANC, it is more likely to publicise the former and downplay the latter. Continue reading

By-elections 11 November 2011

12 November 2015

South Africans went to the polls in eight wards in Wednesday’s by-elections (there were another two ANC wards which were uncontested). Five wards were won by the DA in the 2011 municipal elections and three were won by the ANC. Continue reading

30 September by-elections: some random thoughts

30 September 2015

The results of the 30 September by-elections are in, and I’m blogging for the first time in over two months. I am going to apologise in advance for the informal and incomplete report on these by-elections. I’ve been busy at work, and I’m going to continue to be busy for the foreseeable future. Continue reading