Coalition politics: what’s possible outside of the metros

8 August 2016
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All the buzz and hubbub is around the four metros where coalitions will be needed (Nelson Mandela Bay, Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni) but there are another 23 municipalities with no clear winners.

The map below shows all the municipalities (including metros) where coalitions are needed. Clicking on each municipality will reveal the division of seats in the municipality:

Free State

There is one municipality, Metsimaholo, in the province with no majority. The Metsimaholo Community Association (MCA) is a local party that might hold the balance of power.

Metsimaholo

  • Total seats: 42
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 22
  • Seat allocation: ANC 19, DA 12, EFF 8, MCA 2, VF+ 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/DA; ANC/EFF; ANC/MCA/VF+; DA/EFF/MCA
  • Notes: The ANC has more options here than the DA. A lot depends on the decision of the MCA, a crucial partner in two of the possible coalitions.

Gauteng

Apart from the three metros, there is another muncipality, Mogale City, where a coalition is needed. An ANC-led coalition is most likely, as the party only needs one more seat for a majority, while a coalition of minority parties requires the participation of every other party.

Mogale City

  • Total seats: 77
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 39
  • Seat allocation: ANC 38, DA 27, EFF 9,  VF+ 2, IFP 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/any other; DA/EFF/VF+/IFP
  • Notes: The most likely ANC-led coaltions are ANC/EFF or ANC/VF+.

KwaZulu-Natal

There are seven municipalities in the province with no outright majority party. The ANC has a relative majority in five of these and the IFP has a relative majority in two, but the two parties are quite evenly matched in most of these municipalities.

The ANC needs the EFF as a coalition partner in most of these municipalities, assuming that ANC/IFP or ANC/DA coalitions are not on the table. There is also the chance that some councils may remain hung.

Endumeni

  • Total seats: 13
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 7
  • Seat allocation: ANC 6, IFP 4, DA 2, EFF 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/IFP; ANC/DA; ANC/EFF; IFP/DA/EFF
  • Notes: The most likely coalitions are ANC/EFF or IFP/DA/EFF.

Nqutu

  • Total seats: 33
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 17
  • Seat allocation: IFP 15, ANC 14, NFP 2, EFF 1, DA 1
  • Possible coalitions: IFP/ANC; IFP/NFP; IFP/EFF/DA; ANC/NFP/EFF, ANC/NFP/DA
  • Notes: The most likely coalitions are IFP/EFF/DA or ANC/NFP/EFF. This is the only municipality where the NFP contested elections.

Estcourt/Loskop

  • Total seats: 46
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 24
  • Seat allocation: ANC 23, IFP 18, DA 2, AL JAMA-AH 2, EFF 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/any party
  • Notes: Only the ANC can form a majority coalition. The best that the opposition parties can do is match the ANC’s 23 seats.

eDumbe

  • Total seats: 16
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 9
  • Seat allocation: ANC 8, DA 5, IFP 3
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/DA; ANC/IFP
  • Notes: Only the ANC can form a majority coalition. The DA and IFP can match the 8 seats of the ANC.

Abaqulusi

  • Total seats: 44
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 23
  • Seat allocation: ANC 21, IFP 19, DA 3, EFF 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/IFP; ANC/DA; IFP/DA/EFF
  • Notes: The ANC needs at least one of the IFP  or the DA to form a majority council

Jozini

  • Total seats: 40
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 21
  • Seat allocation: ANC 19, IFP 18, EFF 1, DA 1, Independent 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/IFP; ANC/EFF/DA; ANC/EFF/IND;  ANC/DA/IND; IFP/EFF/DA/IND
  • Notes: The most likely coalitions are ANC/EFF/IND or IFP/EFF/DA/IND. A lot will hinge on the decision of the independent ward councillor

Mtubatuba

  • Total seats: 40
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 21
  • Seat allocation: IFP 18, ANC 18, DA 2, EFF 1, AIC 1
  • Possible coalitions: IFP/ANC; IFP/DA/EFF; IFP/DA/AIC;  ANC/DA/EFF; ANC/DA/AIC
  • Notes: The most likely coalitions are IFP/DA/EFF or IFP/DA/AIC. There is a chance of an 20-20 hung council e.g. IFP/DA vs. ANC/EFF/AIC

Limpopo

There are two municipalities in the province in need of a coalition. The Thabazimibi Residents Association (TRA) in Thabazimbi and the VF+ in Modimolle/Mookgopong are two small parties to watch.

Thabazimbi

  • Total seats: 23
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 12
  • Seat allocation: ANC 10, EFF 5, DA 5, TRA 2,  VF+ 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/EFF; ANC/DA; ANC/TRA; EFF/DA/TRA
  • Notes: It might be easiest for the ANC to do a deal with the TRA. It is interesting that the VF+ isn’t needed for any possible coalitions.

Modimolle/Mookgopong

  • Total seats: 28
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 15
  • Seat allocation: ANC 13, DA 7, EFF 6, VF+ 2
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/DA; ANC/EFF; ANC/VF+; DA/EFF/VF+
  • Notes: Assuming that the ANC/DA coalition is out, the VF+ wields a disproportionate amount of power in this municipality.

North-West

There is only one municipality in need of a coalition in the province, but it’s a very important one. Rustenburg is a regional growth node and the only contested municipality where the EFF is the ‘official opposition’. The roles of the Forum 4 Service Delivery (F4SD) and the Black Consciousness Movement (BCM) could be very important here.

Rustenburg

  • Total seats: 89
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 45
  • Seat allocation: ANC 43, EFF 24, DA 14, F4SD 4,  AIC 1, VF+ 1, UDM 1, BCM 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/almost any other party; EFF/DA/F4SD/three of four small parties
  • Notes: The ANC has far more options than a coalition including the EFF and DA. The F4SD is a new party made up of disgruntled ANC councilors, and it might be key to deciding Rustenburg.

Northern Cape

There are three small municipalities that require coalitions. Small parties and independents will be crucial in all three municipalities. The parties to watch are the Kgatelopele Community Forum (KCF) and the Khoisan Revolution (KSR).

Ubuntu

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: ANC 3, DA 2, Independents x2
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/DA; ANC/either IND; DA/IND/IND
  • Notes: It’s really all up to the independents.

Kgatelopele

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: ANC 3, DA 2, KCF 2
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/DA; ANC/KCF; DA/KCF
  • Notes: It’s really all up to the KCF.

Nama Khoi

  • Total seats: 17
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 9
  • Seat allocation: ANC 8, DA 7, KSR 1, COPE 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/DA; ANC/KSR; ANC/COPE; DA/KSR/COPE
  • Notes: The ANC/KSR and DA/KSR/COPE are the likely coalitions. The KSR holds the balance of power.

Western Cape

There are eight municipalities that require coalitions, a full third of the 24 local municipalities. There are a number of small, local parties that hold the balance of power in various municipalities. These parties include Witzenberg Aksie (WA); the Independent Civic Organisation of South Africa (ICOSA); the Active United Front (AUF); the Knysna Unity Congress (K.U.C); the Karoo Gemeenskap Party (KGP); the Karoo Ontwikkelings Party (KOP); and the Karoo Democratic Force (KDF).

Witzenberg

  • Total seats: 23
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 12
  • Seat allocation: DA 11, ANC 8, WA 1, ICOSA 1, EFF 1, COPE 1
  • Possible coalitions:DA/any, ANC/WA/ICOSA/EFF/COPE
  • Notes: The most likely coalition is DA/COPE.

Hessequa

  • Total seats: 17
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 9
  • Seat allocation: ANC 8, DA 8, VF+ 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/DA; ANC/VF+; DA/VF+
  • Notes: The VF+ holds the balance of power here.

Bitou

  • Total seats: 13
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 7
  • Seat allocation: DA 6, ANC 6, AUF 1
  • Possible coalitions: DA/ANC; DA/AUF; ANC/AUF
  • Notes: The AUF holds the balance of power here.

Knysna

  • Total seats: 21
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 11
  • Seat allocation: DA 10, ANC 7, COPE 1, K.U.C 1, ACDP 1, Independent 1
  • Possible coalitions: DA/any; ANC/COPE/K.U.C/ACDP/IND
  • Notes: A DA/COPE or DA/ACDP coalition are the most likely options.

Prince Albert

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: DA 3, KGP 2, ANC 2
  • Possible coalitions: DA/KGP; DA/ANC; KGP/ANC
  • Notes: The KGP and ANC formed a coalition following the 2011 elections.

Laingsburg

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: ANC 3, DA 3, KOP 1
  • Possible coalitions: ANC/DA; ANC/KOP; DA/KOP
  • Notes: The KOP holds the balance of power. A DA/COPE coalition governed here after 2011.

Beaufort West

  • Total seats: 13
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 7
  • Seat allocation: DA 6, ANC 6, KDF 1
  • Possible coalitions: DA/ANC; DA/KDP; ANC/KDP
  • Notes: The KDP holds the balance of power

Kannaland

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: ICOSA 3, DA 2, ANC 2
  • Possible coalitions: ICOSA/DA; ICOSA/ANC; DA/ANC
  • Notes: The seat allocation is the same as the 2011 elections, where ICOSA and the ANC formed a coalition.
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5 thoughts on “Coalition politics: what’s possible outside of the metros

  1. Talha Asmal

    Hi Paul,

    Your data for Tshwane incorrectly shows ANC having 93 seats and the DA having 89. It should be swapped according to the official IEC results.

    Reply
  2. Pingback: Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Picture in KwaZulu-Natal | 2 Sides 2 Everything

  3. Pingback: Coalition Fever: An Overview of the picture in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces | 2 Sides 2 Everything

  4. DJ

    It would be great if someone could track the actual outcomes of each mayoral election. Almost no news other than the metros.

    Reply

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