Ekurhuleni, the land of countless Cortina jokes. (I made a few of them in this Daily Maverick article before the 2011 elections). It’s also the best shot that the EFF has at winning wards in the 2016 elections.
The EFF’s support is concentrated in the northern half of the metro, although there are two smaller, weaker pockets of support further south. Have a look at the map:
The first of the smaller areas, to the west, covers some of the wards in the south and east of Germiston. These include industrial land and the farm of Driefontein. Wards 33, 35, and 93 have 18 per cent, 15 per cent and 19 per cent of the vote respectively. Ward 33 contains the Kanana and Chris Hani informal settlements – which cover three VDs where the EFF scored more than 30 per cent in 2014.
The second area, in the east, is the suburbs east and north of Springs. The party doesn’t have very strong support in any of the wards.
The north-west corner of the metro is where the action is. The map below zooms in on the area and includes the current (2011) ward demarcations. Bear in mind that these ward boundaries are currently being realigned by the Municipal Demarcation Board in time for the 2016 elections – we’ll have to return to the redemarcations issue in a future post. Anyway:
In general, the VDs where the EFF won 30 per cent or more of the vote are in Wards 1-14, 89-91, and 100. There are four wards of particular interest, where the EFF took more than 30 per cent of the vote over the entire ward: Ward 3 (39 per cent), Ward 89 (36 per cent), Ward 4 (35 per cent) and Ward 2 (32 per cent).
These wards contain all the VDs where the EFF won more than 40 per cent of the vote, and they’re all in Tembisa. The percentage of the population that is Limpopo-born, Sepedi-speaking is also above 40 per cent in these wards – it’s close to half the population in a couple. The wards are also under consideration for redemarcation, which we’ll have to revisit at a later stage.
We’ll have to compare the final 2016 boundaries to the current ones, but this is the area in Gauteng where the EFF has the best chance of winning constituency-based council seats in 2016.